Cut to the chase: Want to see this year’s actual list? Head over to Decoding Everything.

Previous write-ups: Check out the last decade of end-of-year lists to get a sense of our similarities and differences.

Podcast: You can listen to my straightforward Top 10 list on The Spoiler Warning.

Introduction

I have a tradition of tallying my favorite films of the year and turning them into an essay for my blog. But for the last few years, I’ve been honored to contribute that essay instead to David Chen’s Decoding Everything newsletter. If you haven’t already, you should read it first: It’s a significantly more polished (and complete) encapsulation of my thoughts about the year in cinema.

Still, for the sake of continuity, I always like to post a little something extra for readers of my blog and/or this Substack. Last year, that came in the form of an Appendix. This year, I thought I’d shift gears and talk about tomorrow’s Academy Awards—and, in the process, give one last “hurrah” to the many films I loved.

For each category, I’ll share three opinions: which nominee will win, which should win, and what alternatives should have been nominated in their place. Because I think it’s only fair to judge categories I have some personal experience with, I’m going to omit a few:

• Animated Short Film, Documentary Short Film, and Live Action Short Film. I didn’t manage to catch any shorts this year, so for those of you making a prediction bracket of your own, I suggest you give it a Google!
• Documentary Feature. I only caught up with one of the nominees, No Other Land. It’s a phenomenal doc, and I’m personally rooting for it to win! But I can’t honestly judge it against a slate I haven’t seen.
• Music (Original Song). I’ve seen two of the four films nominated, and in the case of Emilia Pérez, I forgot the songs roughly 30 seconds after they stopped playing. On the one hand, it would only take me ~15 minutes on Spotify to rectify this problem and be a completist. On the other: This category is garbage and I don’t care who wins.

OK, now on to the awards!

Animated Feature Film

• Flow
• Inside Out 2
• Memoir of a Snail
• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
• The Wild Robot

What will win? If you’d asked me to predict this category a few months ago, a low budget Latvian film with zero dialogue, little exposition, and an intentionally stripped-down aesthetic wouldn’t have been high on my list of contenders. But awards voting bodies continue to surprise me this year, and by all indications, Flow is going to take home the prize.

What should win? In terms of quality, it’s a tie for me between Memoir of a Snail and Flow. Both are excellent. But for its sheer audacity (and what this win means for the category moving forward), I’ve got to give an edge to Flow.

What should have been nominated instead? This was a fairly weak year for animated features. Setting aside Robot Dreams (which was already nominated last year), the only three I loved (Flow, Memoir of a Snail, The Wild Robot) are already represented in this category. No notes!

International Feature Film

• Emilia Pérez
• Flow
• The Girl With The Needle
• I’m Still Here
• The Seed of the Sacred Fig

What will win? If not for the train wreck of negative publicity, Emilia probably would have had this in the bag. But I think even the stubborn, Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book-adoring factions of the Academy know a lost cause when they’ve seen one. Whereas I’m Still Here continues to have a groundswell of support. It catapulted seemingly overnight from being a film many American critics hadn’t seen, to being a serious contender in multiple categories. It also happens to be excellent, and has no serious detractors to my knowledge. I think this is Walter Salles’ award to lose.

What should win? I think Flow, The Girl With The Needle, and I’m Still Here would all be worthy wins. But The Seed of the Sacred Fig is my personal favorite, both as a standalone work of art and as a potent political statement. Mohammad Rasoulof and his cast fled Iran in secret to attend the Cannes premiere, and cheering for them as they entered the Palais remains one of my most moving moments of 2024.

What should have been nominated instead? Payal Kapadia’s All We Imagine As Light was one of my favorites of the year, and it’s a shame India didn’t submit it for consideration. Likewise for Poland and Green Border, a powerful work of docu-fiction which couldn’t be more timely given current anti-refugee sentiments and the recent change of tune regarding the Russo-Ukrainian war. Sub out Emilia Pérez (a movie I didn’t hate but certainly don’t think belongs in serious contention: You can listen to my scatterbrained thoughts out of Cannes) and The Girl With The Needle (a powerful, brooding arthouse drama which I liked just a tad less than the others).

Visual Effects

• Alien: Romulus
• Better Man
• Dune: Part Two
• Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
• Wicked

What will win? I haven’t been following any of the buzz when it comes to these technical categories, so take all of these predictions with a grain of salt: I don’t know anything you don’t know. But I’d wager this is a dead tie between Dune: Part Two and Wicked. Going to give the edge to Dune: Part Two as a consolation prize for not winning much else.

What should win? I haven’t seen Better Man, but I have seen the other four, and think Dune: Part Two is the most deserving among them…with Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes just a smidge behind it. (The Robbie Williams biopic looks great, for what it’s worth, but it’s hard to imagine anyone out-CG-aping that franchise.)

What should have been nominated instead? It’s outrageous to me that the best action spectacle of the year, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, isn’t getting a single awards nod. Drop Alien: Romulus and give something to George Miller’s epic.

Sound

• A Complete Unknown
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Pérez
• Wicked
• The Wild Robot

What will win? Same disclaimer as above regarding technical categories. I imagine Dune: Part Two has a solid shot here, and can also see a strong argument for A Complete Unknown given how vital diegetic music is to its success. But I think Wicked takes this as a last minute sub for Emilia Pérez.

What should win? The Wild Robot is an inspired nomination for this category. It’s less flashy in its use of sound than the other picks, but it’s the film whose sound design I find most personally memorable.

What should have been nominated instead? Again, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga should be sweeping these technical awards. Drop Emilia Pérez to make room for it.

Costume Design

• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Gladiator II
• Nosferatu
• Wicked

What will win? I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Wicked took the prize, and it would be a deserving victory. But I suspect the same voting bloc that swoons for Elizabethan period pieces and royal regalia will go all in on Vatican chic. I’m calling this for Conclave.

What should win? There are few categories I feel less opinionated about than Costume Design. But I found Nosferatu’s period aesthetic very striking, and a big part of that comes down to costuming.

What should have been nominated instead? I can’t say I know precisely where costumes end and makeup begins, but I Saw The TV Glow nails both in its eerie recreation of the 90s Nickelodeon look and feel. I’m as enchanted by Greenwich Village as anyone, but for the sake of variety, I’d let Mr. Melancholy and his minions bump out A Complete Unknown.

Makeup and Hairstyling

• A Different Man
• Emilia Pérez
• Nosferatu
• The Substance
• Wicked

What will win? It’s hard to imagine the Academy resisting the charms of Wicked. She’s green, for Pete’s sake! And it’s a metaphor for racism and other stuff, probably!

What should win? This is a stacked category, and there’s a decent argument for every nominee: Even Emilia Pérez, the punching bag of this year’s awards season, uses makeup and hairstyling in a way that is crucial to the story. But for me, it comes down to the two body horror flicks. While The Substance was the better film in my opinion, A Different Man is the one which lives or dies by its precise use of makeup. It nails it.

What should have been nominated instead? Even though I defend Emilia Pérez in this category, its inclusion is inextricably linked to its clumsy, ultra-binary handling of trans identity. Why settle for clumsy, when I can nominate a far better film about the trans experience which happens to have incredible hair and makeup? Give its spot to I Saw The TV Glow instead.

Production Design

• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Nosferatu
• Wicked

What will win? None of these nominees would surprise me with a win, but I think Wicked is going to take it given the sheer scale of its production.

What should win? All five films impressed me with their production design (especially Nosferatu), but only one pulled it off on a shoestring budget. The Brutalist is the most deserving of the bunch, and doubly so when considering the constraints they managed it under.

What should have been nominated instead? I’m going to sound like a broken record, but I adored the look and feel of I Saw The TV Glow. It’s hard to cut anything in this category, but I’d lose Conclave as a matter of personal preference. It does an admirable job of recreating the Vatican; I’m just not as thrilled by it.

Music (Original Score)

• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Emilia Pérez
• Wicked
• The Wild Robot

What will win? Normally I’d be inclined to bet on Wicked here, but I suspect the Emilia Pérez stragglers will split the musical vote. So instead I’m going with Volker Bertelmann’s excellent score for Conclave.

What should win? Bertelmann’s work on Conclave is great, as is Daniel Blumberg’s for The Brutalist. But by my memory, Kris Bowers’ score for The Wild Robot blows the competition out of the water.

What should have been nominated instead? The total lock out of Challengers from this year’s awards ceremony is bizarre, and nowhere is it more glaring than in the Original Score category. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross not only should have been nominated; they should have won. Other highlights were All We Imagine As Light (particular Topshe’s song which closes the film, though I’m unsure where “score” ends and “soundtrack” begins when it comes to original compositions) and Alex Somers & Scott Alario’s ephemeral Nickel Boys score. Lose Wicked, Emilia Pérez, and (gun to my head) Conclave to make room for these.

Film Editing

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Emilia Pérez
• Wicked

What will win? Judging by its awards season momentum, I think this is Anora’s to lose.

What should win? I’ve gotta go with the consensus here: Sean Baker’s linear editing process is vital to the momentum of his films, and he knocked it out of the park with Anora.

What should have been nominated instead? Count this among the multiple categories which Nickel Boys ought to have won by a landslide: Nicholas Monsour’s elliptical, rhythmic editing is crucial to the film’s artistic success. Also throw in Challengers for those heart-pumping tennis sequences. No hard feelings, Emilia Pérez and Wicked.

Cinematography

• The Brutalist
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Pérez
• Maria
• Nosferatu

What will win? Voters will be captivated by the way Greig Fraser managed to turn Dune: Part Two into Lawrence of Arabia, but ultimately I think they’ll give this to Lol Crawley for The Brutalist. The ingenuity of filming in VistaVision is sure to win over film nerds everywhere, and the end product looks like a (couple hundred) million bucks.

What should win? Count me among the hypothetical nerds. Of these options, The Brutalist feels most deserving.

What should have been nominated instead? It’s a travesty that Nickel Boys wasn’t nominated for the one category it seemed like an obvious lock to win. Jomo Fray’s first-person filming technique is every bit as clever as Crawley’s bag of tricks, and carries far more emotional weight: This movie is a miracle, and it lives or dies by its cinematography. I can’t rightly drop Maria because I haven’t seen it, so here again I’ll settle for kicking out Emilia Pérez.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Real Pain
• September 5
• The Substance

What will win? Screenplay awards tend to function as a consolation prize for smaller films. Normally, a Sean Baker indie or offbeat Brady Corbet epic would seem like perfect candidates. But this is a strange year, and Anora and The Brutalist are anything but underdogs. Instead, I think the Academy will award Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain.

What should win? If my prediction pans out, the Academy will have made the right choice. A Real Pain flows like a masterful short story; it’s tight, clever, and deserving of the win.

What should have been nominated instead? The Substance was one of my favorite films of the year, but I’d hardly call it tightly written: I was surprised when it won Best Screenplay at Cannes, and I’m doubly surprised to see it here. And The Brutalist, which I loved, struggles in its second half largely due to its screenplay. Meanwhile, September 5 was…fine. Substitute those for The Seed of the Sacred Fig for its deft blending of socio-political metaphor and a psychological thriller, I Saw The TV Glow for fashioning a universe whole cloth and making it emotionally gutting, and Challengers for effortlessly juggling multiple timelines while giving us the single most satisfying callback of the year.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Emilia Pérez
• Nickel Boys
• Sing Sing

What will win? Here, I think the Academy’s love of (good!) middlebrow dramas will tip the scales in favor of Peter Straughan for Conclave.

What should win? Sing Sing is my runner-up pick, and in most years it would probably be a lock: It’s cathartic and stirring. But as an act of adaptation, Nickel Boys is astounding on multiple levels. If you’ve read the novel, you probably understand just how difficult it would be to put on screen. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes turn that difficulty into a strength, making the inability to depict certain aspects a thesis of the film. It’s staggeringly clever.

What should have been nominated instead? There was no more radical act of adaptation this year than Vera Drew and Bri LeRose’s The People’s Joker, whose queer reimagining of Batman lore makes the perfect argument for why we continue to rework and repackage existing stories. Throw in Zach Baylin’s screenplay for The Order, which adds surprising complexity to a terrifying true story. Lose Emilia Pérez and A Complete Unknown, both of which lacked the courage of their convictions: Splitting the difference between “easy viewing” and “provocation,” they wound up saying nothing.

Actor In A Supporting Role

• Yura Borisov (Anora)
• Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
• Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
• Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
• Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Who will win? People can cry “category fraud” all they want, but running Kieran Culkin in Supporting has clearly paid off: His is the most certain victory of the night.

Who should win? This might be the single strongest category of this year’s Oscars; all five performances are great. But Kieran would also get my vote: He lives up to the hype. (For what it’s worth, I’d argue he does function as a sort of supporting character on steroids: However much screen time he has, the narrative is all about Jesse Eisenberg’s response to, and inability to access, Culkin’s character. Granted, by that logic Timothée Chalamet should also have run in Supporting for A Complete Unknown, which is exactly the sort of trolling Dylan would have approved of.)

Who should have been nominated instead? Again, this is an extremely strong category. But Nicholas Hoult blew me away with his portrayal of a white supremacist in The Order, and all of I Saw The TV Glow hinges on the magnetic pull of Jack Haven’s Maddy. Lose Jeremy Strong and (heretical opinion forthcoming) Edward Norton. If I had three more spots to spare, I’d throw in Mike Faist for Challengers, Mark Eydelshteyn for Anora, and Jason Schwartzman for his hilarious not-technically-Ginsberg-but-I-mean-it’s-kinda-sorta-Ginsberg turn in Queer—but I’ve already cut two worthy contenders, and refuse to shed any more blood.

Actress In A Supporting Role

• Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
• Ariana Grande (Wicked)
• Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
• Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
• Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Who will win? Despite starring in the awards season equivalent of the Hindenburg, Zoe Saldaña still seems poised to take home the win. If the Academy were looking for a safer choice, Ariana Grande would run away with this—and still has a solid chance to. But I think they’ll wait until Wicked: For Good to give G[a]linda her flowers.

Who should win? Look, I want Isabella Rossellini to get a lifetime achievement award as much as the next person, and it’s shocking that this is her first Oscar nom. But Conclave is no Blue Velvet, and as strong as she is in this role, it feels too minor for me to give her the trophy. The cinephile in me wants to award Felicity Jones for her career-best work in The Brutalist, but in truth, I think Ariana Grande has earned this. Comic performances are too often sidelined by the Academy, and hers is as deserving as any I’ve seen in recent memory.

Who should have been nominated instead? The Piano Lesson seems to have been buried by the Netflix algorithm, but Danielle Deadwyler is a force of nature in it as Berniece. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor also deserves serious attention for her work in Nickel Boys. Swap them for Saldaña (who does solid work given the circumstances, but is still acting in an over-the-top melodrama) and Rossellini (I’m going against the grain with this one, but I just don’t think there’s enough there there).

Actor In A Leading Role

• Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
• Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
• Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
• Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
• Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Who will win? It’s a dead heat between Brody and Chalamet, but I give the edge to Timotheé, whose momentum has only grown since his killer appearance on Saturday Night Live. Adrien was also featured on a recent SNL, though I somehow doubt that one’s helping his chances.

Who should win? I’d be more than happy with Brody or Chalamet taking this, and intellectually I’m inclined to give it to Brody. But my heart belongs to Colman Domingo, whose performance in Sing Sing—and facility at matching the energy of first-time actors—feels most worthy of celebration.

Who should have been nominated instead? Sebastian Stan deserves to be here, but they picked the wrong movie: He’s great in The Apprentice, but he’s even better in A Different Man. Keep the name, swap the titles. Then bump Ralph Fiennes, whose excellent work in Conclave still didn’t grab my attention as much as Josh O’Connor did in Challengers. (For the record: I’m calling Zendaya and O’Connor leads, and Faist supporting. Apologies to the relationship anarchy types, but this throuple has a hierarchy).

Actress In A Leading Role

• Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
• Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
• Mikey Madison (Anora)
• Demi Moore (The Substance)
• Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

Who will win? The momentum building for Anora could push Mikey Madison over the top, but I expect Demi Moore will retain her lead. Hollywood loves a comeback story, and this one is as juicy as it gets.

Who should win? Fernanda Torres is incredible in I’m Still Here, and Madison has enough charisma to bend an entire movie to her will. But Demi Moore’s turn in The Substance is vulnerable, self-referential, and fearlessly committed. I’ll be thrilled to see her take home the gold.

Who should have been nominated instead? Cynthia Erivo is great as usual, but (plug your ears, theater kids) I just don’t think the character of Elphaba has enough complexity to make for a winning lead performance. And Karla Sofía Gascón charmed my sleep-deprived self well enough at Cannes, but in the sober light of day…she’s gotta go. Trade them for Juliette Gariépy, who is enigmatic and captivating in Red Rooms, and Lily Collias, whose work in Good One is somehow quiet and earth-shattering. (Note: I haven’t been able to catch Hard Truths yet, but by all accounts Marianne Jean-Baptiste is more deserving than any of these nominees.)

Directing

• Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
• Sean Baker (Anora)
• Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
• Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
• James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

Who will win? It’s a coin toss between Baker/Corbet for Director and Anora/The Brutalist for Picture, but something in me suspects the Academy will spread the wealth this year: Give Director to the more audacious work, and Picture to the bigger crowdpleaser. With that in mind, I’m calling Brady Corbet for the win.

Who should win? I’d love to see Baker or Fargeat take home the gold, but ultimately I agree with the Academy in my head: The Brutalist is Brady Corbet’s singular vision, and the culmination of gallons of blood, sweat, and tears. It’s an achievement that deserves to be championed.

Who should have been nominated instead? Spoilers for the next section, but RaMell Ross directed what I’d consider by far to be the most moving and formally accomplished film of the year with Nickel Boys. He deserves this honor more than anyone. Also throw Luca Guadagnino into the mix for Challengers: I imagine if he’d gone to bat for that instead of Queer this year, he might have made it here himself. Lose Audiard and Mangold, both of whom have made far more deserving movies in the past and will have plenty of chances to do so again.

Best Picture

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Pérez
• I’m Still Here
• Nickel Boys
• The Substance
• Wicked

What will win? In a year that feels like a tug of war between traditional Oscar fare (A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked) and more challenging cinematic swings (The Brutalist, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance), two films split the difference by being both crowd-pleasing and critically beloved: Anora and Dune: Part Two. And ranked choice voting means there’s a big advantage to straddling both sides of the fence. If you’d told me last summer that this would be the state of things, I’d say Dune: Part Two had it in the bag: It’s a major spectacle, and Denis Villeneuve has been building Hollywood cred for years. But that decidedly isn’t how the year shook out, and the fact that an unapologetic, Palme d’Or-winning tragi-comedy about a sex worker is now the obvious front-runner tells you just how much we’re evolving as a culture. And I say, bring it on. Anora is my bet for Best Picture, and I’ll be cheering when it happens.

What should win? With that said, Anora isn’t my personal preference, even if I’m excited for it to win. Nickel Boys is the more accomplished and the more important work. Unfortunately, I don’t think it stands a chance. As far as the Academy has come, there’s still only so much you can challenge the viewer and take home the top prize. But for what it’s worth, I believe Nickel Boys is the nominee most likely to stand the test of time. A decade from now, audiences will look back and wonder why the hell we slept on a masterpiece.

What should have been nominated instead? If you really want to know my thoughts on this, you can check out my essay about the best films of the year, or the Top 10 list I gave on my podcast. But in the spirit of keeping Best Picture as a combination of populist and artsy fare, I’ll opt for a lighter touch. Lose A Complete Unknown and Wicked, and substitute them for two other star-driven vehicles: Challengers and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Swap out Emilia Pérez with its clumsy attempts at “allyship”, and replace it with the more honest trans expression of I Saw The TV Glow. And if you’re willing to stretch the classic voter just a bit out of their comfort zone, drop one Catholic Church drama for another. Ralph Fiennes is great in Conclave, but have you tried Cillian Murphy in Small Things Like These?

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Phew! And with that, I’m calling it a night. Be sure to tune in to tomorrow’s broadcast so you can watch me be wrong in real time.